BARONE ON 2012 PROSPECTS – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  Our eyes are on Egypt, but let's not forget that the calendar moves us relentlessly toward the 2012 elections, in which we'll elect a president, the entire House, and a third of the Senate.  Michael Barone examines the numbers, and likes the GOP prospects.  From RealClearPolitics:   

In the 2012 cycle, 23 Democrats come up for re-election and only 10 Republicans. You can get a good idea of their political incentives by looking at the 2010 popular vote for the House in their states. Since the mid-1990s, when partisan percentages in presidential and House elections converged, the popular vote for the House has been a pretty good gauge of partisan balance.

Of the 10 Republican senators up for re-election, only two represent states where Democrats won the House vote -- Olympia Snowe of Maine and Scott Brown of Massachusetts. They're both well ahead in local polls.

For the 23 Democrats up for re-election, the picture is different. Eight represent states where the House vote was 53 percent to 65 percent Democratic and where Barack Obama got more than 60 percent in 2008. Count them all as safe.

But 12 represent states where Republicans got a majority of the House vote in 2010. These include big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia, and states like Montana and Nebraska, where Republican House candidates topped 60 percent. Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin round out the list.

In another three states -- New Mexico, Washington, Minnesota -- Republicans won between 46 percent and 48 percent of the House popular vote. These were solid Obama states in 2008. They don't look like solid Democratic states now.

And...

Finally, what about the portents for the 2012 presidential race? Well, start off with the fact that Democrats won the House popular vote in only two of the 17 states that do not have Senate elections next cycle. The other 15 went Republican.

Overall, Democrats carried the popular vote for the House in 15 states with 182 electoral votes in 2012; add three more for the District of Columbia. Democrats were within 5 percent of Republicans in House elections in five more states with 52 electoral votes.

That gets Democrats up to 237 electoral votes, 33 votes shy of the 270-vote majority and 128 short of the 365 electoral votes Obama won in 2008.

Opinion can change, as it did in 2009 and 2010. But these are not favorable numbers for Obama or his party.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But so much depends on unanticipated events, like the president's handling of the current Mideast crisis.  And much will depend on GOP performance in Congress.  If Republicans just become the party of "no," they will make no great impression.

And of course, and most important, Republican presidential prospects will depend on the candidate.  So far, there is no clear winner, and no one who, as of yet, can take on Obama's campaign power.  So, nothing is in the bag.

January 31, 2011